The Democratic ground game is badly underfunded

We may never have a chance like we do this week. And it's all slipping away.

I pray for bad polls.

This is the trauma response I’ve developed from watching poll after poll tell me that Hillary Clinton was going to trounce Donald Trump and then being slammed in the face by reality when Trump won my home state by just under 11,000 votes.

You could blame a lot of people for this. You should probably start with Jim Comey and Vladimir Putin. Quickly, this could devolve into fingerpointing at Julian Assange or the extreme bias of the New York Times, or Jill Stein, who probably did trick 11,000 Ann Arborites into believing it was safe to vote for her, or Hillary Clinton’s strategy itself. Sure. Fine. Whatever.

But I blame the polls for trickling us into suspending our survival instincts. And I pray for bad ones. Until I get one. Like this from, of course, The New York Times:

Now combine this trigger with two other thoughts occupying my brain:

1. The polls continually have underrepresented Donald Trump’s support around the Great Lakes.

   Polling was pretty good in 2022, to be honest. And it wasn’t bad in 2018. But in 2016 and 2020, it was just wrong. I’ve made my case on this, as so has the Trump campaign. This could be fixed for November. Dobbs and abortion rights in general may have actually shifted the dynamics in ways that we can’t quantify yet. But based on recent history, we should assume polls in the key Blue Wall states are off by at least this much:

   

2. The Democratic ground game is badly underfunded.

   

   The great Amanda Litman of

   Run for Something feel-good updates
   pointed to this post by Billy Wimsatt of the
   Movement Voter Project
   .
   
   It’s a carefully argued and documented piece making the case that “independently-run, locally-based voter mobilization efforts” that could and should elect Harris/Walz and Democrats down the ballot are badly underfunded. Wimsatt offers just a sampling of groups with “proven track records of engaging sporadic Democratic-leaning voters” suffering budget shortfalls. The numbers are huge. He estimates that about $200-$300 Million is needed immediately.

   “Whatever you’ve been thinking about doing to make a difference this election cycle, please do it this week,” he writes. “Whatever you want to contribute or do (so you can wake up on Wednesday, November 6th with no regrets) please prioritize doing it this week. Not in October.”

This is the kind of news that could reduce you to goo.

I’ve been feeling kinda good about the more than $51,000 we’ve helped raise to flip Arizona since March and the more than $5,400 we’ve raised in about a month to keep Michigan. Of course, that’s nothing compared the millions and millions and millions Charles Gaba has helped raise through Blue24.org

For Wimsatt, the scope of the challenge becomes more bearable when you put it into context: “[C]onsider that the Harris campaign raised over $540 million between July 21 and August 25 alone, and AdImpact estimates that 2024 cycle political ad spending will top $10.2 billion.”

The money is there. All we can do is spread the word. Unfortunately, I don’t think this will reach the funders who could make the difference needed. But who knows?

You can donate directly to Movement Voter PAC here. Larger donors can contact the Project here.

When we launched earlyworm in February, the premise was that news junkies could help save democracy. By connecting the news to actions, obsessive news hounds could spin a virtuous circle that resounds out into the larger public. I don’t regret the ambition of the idea while recognizing that it’s a bit airy fairy. Now, and until the last vote is counted, it is to help those who care about democracy do the most good.

That’s why we’re pushing Downballot for Democracy and offering people new things they can do every day at erlywrm.com. And we will do that until the last votes are counted, at least.

How will we do the most good? It’s a question that haunted the freaky Greeks. And I’d bet it’s the existential mystery underlying your life as we face this election.

I hope you find the answer. And I aspire to help as many people as possible do that.

I know people prefer and need good news. But I require, when it truly matters, the dignity of the truth Dr. Krakower offered Carmela Soprano:

Let’s end this with the part of Wimsatt’s message that made my soul leap out from my solar plexus. It’s the kind of inspiration that makes me pray for bad polls:

A Blue Wave in 2024 would be so good that it is worthy of our largest possible investment…

It’s unreal how few people – on either side – will decide the course of history. 

Given the non-negotiable timeline imposed by the climate crisis, we won’t get this big a chance to make this big a difference in the future of the world for the rest of our lifetimes. This is it.

Notice: I am not equivocating here. I did not say “might” or “could.” This is a definitive statement. A Harris-Walz administration supported by a Democratic Congress from 2025-2028 is our best shot at stabilizing the climate, locking in an accelerated transition to clean energy, and saving our grandkids’ future. Period.