How to win over the voters who will decide this election

They're undecided about voting at all. And we must do everything we possibly can to reach them.

You love to see Vice President Harris calling into the Weather Channel to talk about Hurricane Milton, just as you love seeing her on 60 Minutes, the Howard Stern Show, Colbert, Call Her Daddy, and The View.

Because her message is obviously, “I care. And I will go anywhere to win your vote.” Whereas Donald Trump’s message is, “Please don’t make me debate again, or I may wee myself.”

As someone obsessed with politics and democracy, you know that almost zero “persuadable” voters read The New York Times, which is currently stewing over Harris, like Biden, refusing to reward the publication with a coveted sit-down interview. The Times’ often good coverage is overwhelmed by an unflinching pro-GOP bias, likely born out of defensiveness to attacks from the right, and the politics desk’s obsession with MAGA message laundering. And, unfortunately, the reporting from “the paper of record” warps our entire political discourse.

One of The Times’ worst offenses is their “focus groups” of “undecided voters” led by “Frank Luntz,” Pat Buchanan’s former pollster who may be the man most responsible for normalizing racist dog whistles and neo-fascist politics by using poll-tested euphemisms for hate speech.

Luntz uses these “focus group” stunts to do two incredibly toxic things: 1) he launders in talking points that persuade Republicans who think of themselves as decent to vote for a traitor like Donald Trump, often through the mouths of Republican operatives or devotees masquerading as “undecided” voters, and 2) he propels the myth that this or any election will be decided by the mythical “undecided” voter who cannot decide whether they prefer Trump’s plan for another Kristallnacht over Harris’ proposal to expand Medicare to include home care, vision, and hearing.

Anyone who knows anything about electoral politics knows these voters barely exist. That “undecidedness” is generally a ploy for attention or a smokescreen to avoid embarrassment.

Ron Brownstein’s piece “The Undecided Voters Are Not Who You Think They Are” is critical to understanding this (and every) election:

Both political parties, however, are more focused on a different—and much larger—group of undecideds: potential voters who are highly likely to support Harris or Trump, but unsure if they will vote at all.

Campaigns typically describe the first group of reliable but conflicted voters as persuadable; they frequently describe the second group as irregular voters. Persuadable voters get the most attention from the media, but campaigns recognize that irregular voters can loom much larger in the outcome—especially in presidential elections when more of them ultimately participate.

“There are a gajillion more of those [irregular] people than the Harris/Trump ‘I don’t know; I’m still thinking about it’” kind of voter, Anat Shenker-Osorio, a communications consultant for Democrats and progressive groups, told me. “There are more humans who are non-habitual voters than there are voters who swing back and forth. That’s just math.”

We investigated this dynamic when we spoke to Zo Tobi of the Movement Voter Project (MVP). And I’ve been buzzing ever since that interview because I think MVP’s model of acting like a mutual fund that backs trusted local organizers where the organizing matters most could transform America. It can do this by turning out sporadic voters in this election (and saving democracy) and then turning them into consistent voters by rewarding their votes with policy wins.

I was so taken with MVP that I immediately signed up as a monthly donor and opened a fundraiser inviting you to help raise $20,024. We have now zoomed past that goal. Finding that so many of you have generously shared my enthusiasm has convinced me to do something outrageous, at least for me.

We will raise $200,024 to help the organizations that MVP backs turn out the undecided-about-voting voters who will decide that election—or we will try, at least.

This would be a tiny fraction, not even a whole percentage point, of what MVP says is needed to fully fund a ground game that can compete with the GOP’s megachurch/gun club/Fox News/electoral college advantage. But it would help.

And one of my theories of change at earlyworm is that by feeding the right news and ideas to obsessives like us, people who check our phones for political news on the way to checking our phone for political news, we can expel nutrients of change that can affect the entire political ecosystem. Who knows? What else can we do but try?

So I would like to invite you to join this effort. Please join me in giving if you can. Please spread the word.

And please join us this Sunday, October 13th, at 6 PM PT/ 9 PM ET for a discussion with the man who made MVP happen, the great Billy Wimsatt.

While making this big ask, I have to thank everyone who has been with me on this journey, for lack of a better word. When I hired myself to work full-time for Democracy in February, I knew that spreading jokes, news, and opinions wouldn’t be enough. I had to raise some cash and send it to the right places. And I suck at asking people for money.

What we achieved is nothing compared to what, say, Charles Gaba has done in his spare time with Blue24.org, who has raised over $10 million for Democratic candidates without taking a dime for himself, in his spare time!

But it has changed my life and swelled my love of democracy and my fellow Americans, the good ones. I’ve learned that while I still suck at asking for money, I love helping people find the right causes to support. And, oddly enough, people seem to appreciate the help.

Our earlyworm fundraisers have generated $92,617 thus far. In addition to what we’ve raised for MVP, we’ve raised $56,950 to flip Arizona and $11,267 to protect our trifecta in Michigan. And hopefully we’ve raised a lot more with our Downballot for Democracy recommendations. Who knows? We can’t track that.

We will continue growing that money until near the end of October, for as long as it can be put to good use.

But our focus on MVP is essential because we know who will decide this election. We know how to reach them. Now, we need to make it happen. And we can only do it together.