It's going to be close. But this is how we win Michigan.
Taking on Trump districts will help preserve our trifecta and defend democracy
This is part of our Downballot for Democracy series.
The States Project has released a "potential tipping point district deck " for Michigan.
Now we have a much better idea of the strategy to maintain Democratic control of the House to preserve the trifecta in the state while helping send votes up to Democrats for president and U.S. Senate. One of the races was identified, re-electing Rep. May Xiong in State House District 13, could even help defeat Republican John James, the most vulnerable Republican US House member in the state.
This synergy is the core motivation behind our KEEPING MICHIGAN Giving Circle, which I hope you'll help support and spread. We need your help because it will be close—closer than I am right now to the poutine in Windsor.
Of the 56 Democrats in our two-seat majority, six won by fewer than 2,000 votes in 2022. And if 330 voters had gone the other way in 2022, there would have been no trifecta. Roe would not have been codified into law. There would be no free breakfasts and lunches for every kid in the state. We wouldn't have one of the best green energy laws in the nation.
There are 11 challenge districts identified, including my own, represented by the great Jennifer Conlin. In 2020, Donald Trump outperformed Joe Biden in six of these districts, more than half.
Statehouse races are turnout machines. I've seen Rep. Conlin in my neighborhood twice this year because she knows knocking on doors is the most effective way of getting ballots in boxes.
And while Washtenaw County delivered Joe Biden 28,653 more votes in 2020 than Hillary Clinton got in 2016, Trump also picked up 5,610 votes.
I've explained before that there are Hidden Trump Voters in my state, and as gross as it is, they're inspired by stunts like Trump visiting Howell, Michigan, highlighting the city's unfortunate history with the Klan and recent flare-ups of Nazism.
We learned in 2020 that there are more of us than then them. We also gave ourselves expanded voting access, abortion rights, and a Democratic trifecta in 2022. But 2024 can go either way.
This is true at our State Supreme Court level, too.
As Daniel Nichanian at Bolts wrote:
This is one of the few supreme courts whose partisan majority could flip this year. Democrats currently have a 4-3 majority, an edge that’s come into play in recent cases that touch on sentencing or democracy, and each party is defending one seat this fall.
That's why we're also asking people to support Blue24.org's State Supreme Court slate to send Kyra Harris Bolden back to the bend and add Kimberly Ann Thomas to the majority. You can also back Allison Riggs in North Carolina, whose victory is essential to putting the Tar Heel State back on the road to democracy, Wisconsin-style.
Winning demands clarity and maximum generosity from those who can give and help. But we must win. We've felt the anguish of letting ourselves and our nation down in Michigan. And we've seen the opportunity for change when we win. Now, that opportunity is clearer.
I'm going to be working with the Progressive Turnout Project to knock on Dem voters' doors in Michigan. (Coming in from Chicago, I'll visit towns in the SW.) One contact increases the chance that they'll vote by 7% which sounds small but could make all the difference!
The “blueness” of Michigan is tenuous. The fact there are hidden MAGA voters in Michigan is scary but a huge voter turnout will help defeat them. I live in Oakland county and I see a mixture of lawn signs. When I drive through more affluent or more rural areas I see more red. We CANNOT let the legislature go back to the GOP because the party is so fractured here in Michigan and the MAGA faction could still have some influence which is scary as hell. Electing Elissa Slotkin is also hugely important to keep the senate blue. We need to get out the vote en masse to keep the Michigan from backsliding to the dark days of the GOP with MAGA lurking in the wings.