BIG LIE 2.0 ALERT: Secure the statehouses

How winning state legislative elections in Pennsylvania, Nevada, and New Hampshire could decide the presidency.

It’s just a paragraph at the end of a New York Times article about Democrats' new focus on winning, or at least breaking supermajorities, in state legislatures, led by the States Project, the group we’re working with for our Flipping Arizona Giving Circle. 

But it should ring out like the echo of Paul Revere’s voice:

“It would shock most people to know that whoever wins the state legislative elections in Pennsylvania, Nevada, and New Hampshire this year will take office before those states send presidential electors to Congress,” [former Democratic state senator from New York and co-founder of the States Project Daniel] Squadron said.“That raises the stakes enormously.”

It’s not tough to game out why this matters. Above is the map if Joe Biden wins all the states he won in 2020 except Georgia and Republican state legislatures from Pennsylvania, Nevada and New Hampshire swipe these states' electoral votes.

Of course, we’d never just sit back and accept this sort of thievery. But we know three things for sure about this election:

• Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will get millions more votes than Donald Trump and whichever hollow shill he picks as his running mate (probably Doug Burgum because he’s rich and no imaginable threat to Trump).

• This election will still be decided on a knife edge, with a few hundred thousand voters in six or so states deciding this election for the other 150 million or so voters.

• Republicans led by Donald Trump will try to steal this election by any means possible. Being a democracy thief is a literal requirement for the RNC, led by the party’s “Election Integrity Officer,” who has been indicted in Arizona for trying to steal that state’s electoral votes. Their evil plan involves keeping it close enough to skeeve out a way for the Supreme Court to deliver states they may not win with a conservative “justification” that could sway John Roberts and/or Amy Comey Barrett. “Leave it up to the states” is one “justification” that meets that menial measure.

That means winning in the state legislatures is essential for securing a 2024 election. Of course, victory in 2024 is not even close to inevitable and a coinflip at best right now. That’s why focusing on winning state legislatures and other down-ballot races is also one of our best electoral strategies. Call it Reverse Coattails.

So what should we do?

Fight everywhere, like Florida Democrats who have scrambled to contest every state legislature race in the state for the first time in 30 years as voters have a chance, but a very high bar, to take back the reproductive freedoms Republicans stole from them.

This means helping the States Project with its keen strategic focus on winning statehouses. Yes, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and New Hampshire are among their target states in 2024.

You can also back candidates and party groups in Pennsylvania, Nevada, and New Hampshire. (This is very easy, thanks to Charles Gaba, who we talked to recently on our podcast and has helped raise more than $600,000 with his “not a PAC” Blue24.org, with more than $250,000 going to state legislative races.) We’ll be sharing ways to donate your time and effort to win in these states through our daily updates on erlywrm.com. 

This warning and the article detailing Democrats’ efforts to spend more than a quarter of a billion winning statehouses are reasons to cheer or at least sigh in some pained relief. We see what’s coming. But that also means that those of us who see it must ensure that everyone knows these threats are real because — as Anat Shenker-Osorio told us — a lot of swing voters don’t see it yet.

We all know by now that Donald Trump will never accept losing anything, even his access to nuclear secrets or his hair. So let’s make sure he has no choice.