2024 could look like 2016 or 2020
But there’s only one way it can resemble 2008 at all, if we Get Down for Democracy
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A new poll of Texas finds that Kamala Harris trails Donald Trump by only 5 percent.
This seems pretty remarkable if you rely on a single poll–and you shouldn’t. Texas could be an easier reach for Harris than Minnesota or New Hampshire, two states Democrats almost lost in 2016, are for Trump.
This would be significant if it weren’t basically a repeat.
Joe Biden only lost Texas by 5.5% in 2020. The state, especially in presidential elections, has been trending left along with Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. And it would be close to a toss-up if not for literal Jim Crow-era voter registration laws in the Lone Star State.
All this really shows that the 2024 election looks a lot like the 2020 election, at least for now. And that’s good news, but nothing to bank on.
Vibes have shifted, but not fundamentals
Michael Podhorzer, the former political director for the AFL-CIO who got 2022 right, explains that the race's vibes have changed, but its fundamentals have not.
“We knew in November 2016 that Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nevada were where the presidency gets decided. That hasn't changed,” he told Politico. “We knew that [election] was going to be decided by smaller margins than polling can tell us, and that [the results] would be decided by who actually did a better job in those states.”
We could be looking at another 2020 or another 2016. Just a few ticks of a percentage point in a few key states will decide. It’s up to us to decide.
How could we shock the GOP?
One decision already seems to be made: This year won’t be like 2008 when Barack Obama led Democrats to a generation peak with big majorities in both Houses.
Getting even in sight of 60 seats in the Senate seems impossible at this point in history, and Democrats haven’t embraced anything like Howard Dean’s 50 State Strategy unless you count Run for Something’s 50 State School Board Strategy, which we can’t, unfortunately.
Dean’s approach as DNC Chair of trying to win everywhere, combined with a general rejection of George W. Bush and the two wars he was losing, lifted every boat with a D and helped bring a football coach named Tim Walz to Congress, for instance.
Could something like that happen this year?
Honestly, not to that degree. But if we could combine the public’s hatred of the Dobbs’ decision and their desire to elect someone who believes in counting votes with a shocking amount of support down-ballot, something fantastic could happen.
Sending votes up and down the ballot
As we know by now, thanks mainly to Run for Something’s Amanda Litman, coattails can work both ways.
In places where the Democratic brand is good, the top of the ticket likely helps or hurts all the candidates on the ballot. Everywhere else, the candidates at the lower part of the ticket, those with genuine roots and history to overcome the damage the Democratic brand from decades of right-wing propaganda, the candidates may make the opposite true. These Reverse Coattails could mean state legislative candidates help House candidates, who help Senate Candidates who could help presidential candidates.
We also know that the more money travels lower on the ballot, the less likely it is to be spent on expensive ads and the more likely it is to go to activities that activate and persuade voters–like lawn signs and door knocking.
We also know that it doesn’t take a hell of a lot of money to change down-ballot races, while Kamala Harris and Tim Walz already have a hell of a lot of money and will get a hell of a lot more. Like probably a billion dollars or more.
Meanwhile, a competitive state legislative election costs just 3% compared to a similar federal race.
Introducing ‘Get Down for Democracy’
So here’s the big idea: while money can still make a big difference, let’s get down for democracy.
Assuming you already have, will, or will continue giving to Harris/Walz, great. But the challenge is to get down a little more than you expected, where your money can make the most difference.
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