Yes, they will try to steal Arizona’s electoral votes
But just because we anticipate treachery doesn’t mean we have to accept treason.
They’re getting the coup back together. Not that it ever went anywhere – except the Supreme Court.
This week, we issued a “BIG LIE 2.0 ALERT” about how the MAGA will try to steal electors in Pennsylvania, Nevada, and New Hampshire. Daniel Squadron, a former State Senator from New York and co-founder of the States Project, was quoted in The New York Times saying that “whoever wins the state legislative elections” in these states “this year will take office before those states send presidential electors to Congress.”
The day after that alert, Sabato’s Crystal Ball at UVA’s Center for Politics published an assessment of “2024’s Battleground State Legislative Chambers” for political junkies obsessed with down-ballot races and reverse coattails, this is essentially porn. I flipped right to Arizona – since we are most obsessed with Flipping Arizona – and here’s what I found:
I was like “WHAT!” So I reached out to the States Project to see why Daniel Squadron, just love saying that whole name, hadn’t included the Grand Canyon State on his list of states he was raising the alarm about.
Here’s the clarification we got:
Yes, Arizona is also a risk. It's heightened in the states Daniel mentioned because they seat their newly elected folks ahead of the safe harbor deadline.
In Arizona, a state that had a rightwing-appointed slate of “alternate” electors in 2020, rightwing majorities re-elected in November could make unfounded election fraud claims designed to slow down the process of tabulation, or to attempt to have some ballots thrown out entirely. If voters elect new majorities in AZ, such claims will have significantly less weight with the public, Congress, and the courts.
Apparently, I wasn’t the only one seeking clarification because Sabato’s Crystal Ball added the updates below in bold:
The stakes could be especially high given the legislature’s role in finalizing the election results, which could be pivotal nationally—although the 2022 Electoral Count Reform Act clarified that legislatures have no such role, and they likely never had that power anyway (we added this clarification as an update after publication).
Let me add my synthesis to the States Project response and the Ball’s clarification:
It’s illegal, but we know they will try anyway. So let’s flip those houses so the public has it's say on the GOP's continued effort to steal our votes and our democracy.
Arizona’s GOP currently controls both of the state’s legislative chambers, just barely. This has dried up a lot of the Big Lie Mania that overwhelmed the state in 2020-2022 (and probably helped elect Democrats to all the statewide offices, though just barely). Remember the Cyber Ninjas?
Arizona’s Republicans were bad in the era of Sherrif Joe Arpaio, and now they’re basically the animated corpse of Sherrif Joe Arpaio, even if he’s still alive. They will never cede any election they lose, like Trump. Kari Lake is still pretending she won as she’s working on losing another race she’ll pretend she won.
I’ll reiterate the three certainties of 2024 from this week’s ALERT to make a final, extremely important point:
Joe Biden will get millions more votes than Donald Trump.
This election will still be decided on a knife edge, with a few hundred thousand voters in six or so states deciding this election for the other 150 million or so voters.
Republicans led by Donald Trump will try to steal this election by any means possible.
And despite all this, Donald Trump could still win straight-up with his electoral college headstart. It’s a coin flip.
But we are not the kind of people who will just let this happen. And we are not the kind of people who will just let a coup happen, no matter how invidiously it has become normalized by America’s right.
When we posted about the original Arizona assessment from Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the incredible A.R. Moxon, whom we met on an episode of our podcast about his fine new book VERY FINE PEOPLE, made this excellent point:
We aren’t the media, not really. And we didn’t mean to in any way suggest this is natural or given. It’s an abomination. If anything is criminal, it is. And it’s worth noting that there are criminal charges against an array of Republicans who were involved in Arizona’s fake elector treachery from 2020, with Trump named as Unindicted Co-Conspirator 1. And there should be again, should they dare.
We’re in a tough spot. All of us are. We have to anticipate and prevent the right’s attempts to overthrow democracy because, as suggested before, the Republican men on the Supreme Court have joined the coup.
But we cannot normalize this or accept it or gloss over this.
These dictator-loving corporate fascists are very good at molding reality as they try to march into power with a Bible in one hand and a bumpstock in the other. Taking responsibility for defeating them means taking responsibility for calling out treason whenever we see it. Because yes, fake electors, again, at this point in history, would be nothing less.
Yes. Of course they will try to steal the election. We have to vote in numbers too big to rig, and too numerous to fail. It comes down to turnout. We cannot be complacent. This is the most important election of our lives, and maybe in our history. The choice couldn’t be more clear. 😎
Remember when McCarthy moved into his office before the 15 votes were taken? Isn’t this the same as gOP( g( grand lower case on purpose), if ANY false electors try and assume office; isn’t this same as McCarthy?( whose the greater fool the one following or the one leading?)